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My UFC Picks for Sportsbook Fridays 7-19-19


Hey welcome to the first installment of Sportsbook Fridays, a once a month segment where I talk briefly about which UFC bets I picked and why. Since this is the first installment in the series, I will talk about all of my initial picks; which ones won, and which ones lost. This does not promote gambling whatsoever, and is DEFINITELY not financial advice. It is merely for entertainment. Hopefully you respect it for what it is. All picks have been done with research, and a disciplined approach. If you have a problem with discipline, definitely do not do this. 

Here is the backstory about when I started doing this. I actually started wagering on sports a month ago, depositing nearly $50 and ultimately getting it up to nearly $71. I have been reinvesting the profits $5 at a time on UFC picks that I believe have the best odds of winning, or the risk being worth the reward. Oftentimes, I have picked bets that have had uneven odds with the underdog to the upside and good probability of winning. These were uneven bets that were booked incorrectly on the booking side. I only pick single bets and never on parlays and hedges. And I only focus on MMA since I have a background in martial arts and since I know the space very well.


($5) Placed - Single To Win $ 20.00
Felicia Spencer (+400) 
Cristiane Justino vs Felicia Spencer 

I picked Felicia Spencer because she is a sleeper. With only 7 fights under her belt, she surely doesn't have the experience that Cris Cyborg brings to the cage. But, being a young Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt at 28, and with a growing striking repertoire, she can bridge the gap should she somehow bring the fight to the mat. When I was looking at her fights, I liked that she was more heavyset. This means that she will be able to take Cyborg's punches better than most. Also I liked that she was tougher than most female fighters. She has a tough challenge in Cyborg, but like I said, she is a sleeper and worth the +400 reward. 
Cost: $5 
Win: $20 




($5)
Placed - Single
To Win $ 4.76

Alexandre Pantoja (-105)  
Deiveson Alcantra Figueiredo vs Alexandre Pantoja 

Based on stylistic matchup, I picked Pantoja to win because he was the more technical fighter. Upon seeing Figueiredo's fights, I did not like how stiff he looked in all his fights. Also with Pantoja being a BJJ black belt, and having a slick striking game, he is p4p better on paper. 
Cost: $5
Win: $4.76






($5)
Placed - Single
To Win $ 1.92

Colby Covington (-260) 
Colby Covington vs Robbie Lawler 

I picked Colby to win because I believe his skills are far above Lawler's. Although Lawler is an extremely technical striker, Colby just has sound fundamentals. Covington has the cardio to out gas Lawler, but the only problem is the first round where Lawler has the knock out finishing ability. If this fight goes past rounds 1 or 2, Covington takes this easily.




Cost: $5
Win: $1.92 


($5)
Placed - Single
To Win $ 15.00

Frankie Edgar (+300)  
Max Holloway vs Frankie Edgar

Based on the odds, I had to pick Edgar. I chose Edgar because his striking techniques are equal or better than Holloways. They are both great strikers and grapplers, but the match up is weird because Holloway has a more aggressive style whereas Frankie is more of a counter striker. With Frankie having been finished by KO by Brian Ortega, a fighter who gave Holloway a devastating defeat, the odds favor Holloway. The other thing going against Frankie is his age and familial duties. Being a father to 3 children means he focuses less on training. Holloway also has some problems with CTE, a concussive disorder from years of being hit in the head. Based on the odds and match up, I chose Frankie to win.
Cost: $5 
Win: $15 

 





($5)
Placed - Single
To Win $ 3.03

Irene Aldana (-165)
Irene Aldana vs Raquel Pennington 

I chose Irene because stylistically, her skills beat Raquel's by a long shot. Raquel has always been a stalwart technical brawler, and not really known for her technical proficiency. She is tough as nails, but on paper Irene is the better fighter. 
Cost: $5
Win: $3.03







($5)
Placed - Single
To Win $ 7.00

Francisco Trinaldo (+140)  
Alexander Hernandez vs Francisco Trinaldo 

With the +140 odds, Trinaldo was the obvious choice because I believe his technical abilities are superior to Alexander Hernandez's. This is because based on training footage, Hernandez is sloppier whereas Trinaldo has superior technique. Trinaldo also has the knockout power and old-man strength to keep being a threat on the feet.
Cost: $5
Win: $7 


($5)
Placed - Single
To Win $5.25

Rafael Dos Anjos (+105)  
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Leon Edwards

Rafael Dos Anjos has the experience advantage. I also think he has good wrestling and jiu jitsu, as well as good striking. Leon Edwards is the younger fighter and has knockout power; this will be a tough test for RDA.
Cost: $5
Win: $5.25




Total Cost: $35
Pot Upside: $56.96
Cash Avail: $33.11
Starting Cap: $49.89

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